E3 2015 is just under two weeks away and we are starting to see the trickle of pre-show info increase into a steady stream. Each year sees the big three console manufacturers jockey for position in a competition to create a buzz about their machines and games: a contest for mind-share among the consumer.

The three console makers’ will be entering E3 2015 from very different positions, and with very different goals in mind for future success. It’s easy, maybe somewhat lazy to claim that all three are looking to capture the most market share. Of course that is the ultimate desire for each company, however, how realistic are the chances that the Wii U is going to come from behind and over take Sony and their PlayStation 4? It’s an unrealistic goal for Nintendo right now, however it may not be so unrealistic in the future.

A few days ago, we began this series with a look at Sony and how they may want to position the PlayStation 4 for the rest of 2015 and beyond. We then examined Microsoft and their potential plans for the near-future of Xbox One at E3 2015. Today we conclude our series by reviewing the granddaddy of console makers, Nintendo and where they stand in the current 8th generation landscape.

Please keep in mind that this article is based solely on my opinion and speculation. I don’t have any inside info on what may or may not be presented at their respective conferences and I may be entirely off-base on my predictions, however if I somehow manage score at least a 90% on those predictions I respectfully request that you honor my mental acumen by sending me a box of cookies.

So let us continue our look at the big three with the 8th generation underdog, Nintendo.

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When the Wii launched in 2006 it created a revolution, not just with the gaming industry, but with a whole new

breed of “casual gamer” that did not realize that it even liked videogames. The Wii’s intuitive motion-control scheme was a brilliant master stroke that propelled the console into unlikely new territories. How many other videogame consoles have you seen in retirement homes? None. Except for the Wii. (And yes, I witnessed this first-hand.) The Wii was successful enough to cross the magical 100 million units sold threshold, the only Nintendo home console to break this barrier. (Nintendo did have two hand-helds break break 100 million sold;The Nintendo DS and the Game Boy, although those numbers do not separate the hardware revisions that those two systems had.)

One would expect that the follow-up to Nintendo‘s most successful home console would have a bit of a drop in sales. Lightning can’t strike twice in successive generations, right? Unfortunately, that seems to be the case with the Wii U. It’s been a tough road for Nintendo‘s current machine. Despite having arguably the best library of any of the current-gen systems on the market, Nintendo has not been able to parlay the quality of the library into sales of the console itself, and right now the Wii U is somewhere shy of 10 million units sold.

Nintendo‘s Wii U woes can be boiled down to a few key factors.

• Nintendo launched a “next-gen” machine that was only slightly more powerful than the current generation of hardware that was already on the market. I.E. PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.
• Nintendo launched the Wii U too early. They launched at a time when many of the specs of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One were still under wraps. Rumor’s create mystery. Mystery creates excitement and desire. Nintendo should have learned from the mistakes of its former rival Sega, who succumbed to two failed hardware launches under similar circumstances. The Saturn, which was soft-launched via surprise announcement at E3 2005, and the Dreamcast, which launched ahead of details of the PlayStation 2 coming to light.
• Nintendo’s Wii U Gamepad is a liability. Although it’s a neat piece of technology, a clear argument has not been made as to why it needed to be included with the system. It’s keeping the price of the Wii U artificially high and is handicapping Nintendo from making any competitive price adjustments to the Wii U.
• Finally, there has been no rallying point for the Wii U. The Wii sold tens of millions of units on the strength of its pack-in game, Wii Sports. There may be a ton of fantastic Wii U games out there right now, but that singular “it” title – the game that sells the system for you has not appeared. The closest we have had so far is Mario Kart 8 (Which is the best Mario Kart game since the N64 version released in 1996.)

These mistakes have combined to cut the legs out from Nintendo‘s own success, which is a crying shame because as anyone that has taken the Wii U plunge can tell you, the system is friggin’ fantastic!!

Mario Kart 8 is arguably the best game in the Mario Kart series.

Super Smash Bros for Wii U is fantastic fun that will continue to improve with quality DLC.

Bayonetta 2 is the best action game of this generation. An amazing ride that oozes quality and personality in every frame.

Splatoon is fresh, vibrant and just plain fun.

I could go on and on but seriously; in a perfect world the Wii U would be doing better.

And I think things are turning around for the Wii U. At least they seemed to be last year.

As Nintendo entered E3 2014, the Wii U seemed to have some momentum going for it. Mario Kart 8 was already revitalizing the Wii U, becoming the best selling game on the console; Super Smash Bros. Was on the holiday horizon, exciting new I.P. like Splatoon and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker were announced, and there was the promise of the new The Legend of Zelda title, along with this new thing called Amiibo. 2014 was indeed a strong year for Nintendo, however, this year, Nintendo‘s momentum might be in danger of of running out of gas.

Nintendo has already revealed that they are working on the next generation of consoles, currently dubbed NX; and although they won’t talk about it at E3 2015, the disclosure of a new platform on the horizon can often put the breaks on any excitement that is building for what is currently on the market.

The larger problem facing Nintendo may be the continued lack of a marquee system-seller. The Legend of Zelda for Wii U had previously been slated for a fall 2015 release, however the larger open world envisioned by the design team may have been a bit more challenging a project than originally envisioned. Nintendo has opted to delay the game into the nebulous 2016 territory and the company has confirmed that it will not be present at E3 2015. (If NX is a 2016 project then there is always the possibility that The Legend of Zelda gets pushed to the new machine, or that multiple versions come out, ala The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess). It feels like Nintendo is entering E3 2015 with the idea of placing themselves in a holding pattern until they are ready to talk about next-gen. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, however the real danger is that if Nintendo remains quiet for too long, they risk losing mind-share amongst the consumer, and that will be counter-productive once they are ready to start talking about the next-generation.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Nintendo though. Nintendo is probably the best company at keeping their projects from being leaked prior to their being ready, so they will absolutely have something to talk about this year. They teased a new production of Star Fox from legendary creator Shigeru Miyamoto at E3 last year, so it’s almost a given that we will see a full reveal this year with a holiday 2015 release. Nintendo also has Xenoblade Chronicles X waiting in the wings for the hardcore RPG crowd. Mario Maker is also on tap for a release later this year, however as cool as the prospect of creating and sharing your own Mario levels may be, it remains to be seen if it’s a game that can anchor a holiday marketing campaign.

Bottom Line

Nintendo will enter E3 2015 in a tougher position than they did last year. They will have to use what they have left with the Wii U in order to maintain relevance for whatever they decide to do with NX. What Nintendo has going for them is a passionate fan-base that is willing to buy into Nintendo as a brand, as well as consistent developers that rarely fail to deliver a quality gameplay experience.

Predictions

Star Fox is coming. It’s indisputable. I am also expecting an Animal Crossing related announcement for Wii U. One of the biggest questions on the minds of Nintendo fans is what is Retro Studios up to? They recently sent out a somewhat mysterious tweet on their Twitter account, so the tide is turning in favor of a new game reveal at E3 2015. What will it be though? Will they return to the Metroid series, or will they continue on with Donkey Kong? Or, perhaps they are tackling something completely new; something like F-Zero? I predict Retro will unveil their next project and that it will be a departure from the Donkey Kong series. As far as the Nintendo 3DS goes, one thing I will predict is an enhanced port of the 1997 N64 classic Diddy Kong Racing.

As far as pricing goes, I don’t think they will drop the price of the Wii U at E3 2015, however I believe they will reduce the price by the end of the year. I also expect announcements on new DLC for Mario Kart along with the Super Smash Bros DLC announcement that will happen on Sunday 6/14, prior to the Nintendo World Championships. I will also predict that following the wave of excitement from Splatoon’s reveal last year, Nintendo will likely have at least one brand-new I.P. to showcase. We already know about their publishing deal with Namco Bandai for Project Treasure, however I would place money on at least one new Nintendo original.

Nintendo usually brings an air of mystery and excitement to E3, so all eyes will be on the house of Mario as they reveal their plans on Tuesday June 16th at 12PM EDT.

That concludes our look at the how the three console manufactures stack up heading into E3 2015. Be sure to let let us know what your predictions are in the comments section below. And be sure to stay tuned to NerdBacon.com for our continuing coverage of E3 2015.