E3 2015 is just under two weeks away and we are starting to see the trickle of pre-show info increase into a steady stream. Each year sees the big three console manufacturers jockey for position in a competition to create a buzz about their machines and games; a contest for mind-share among the consumer.

The three console maker’s will be entering E3 2015 from very different positions, and with very different goals in mind for future success. It’s easy, maybe somewhat lazy to claim that all three are looking to capture the most market share. Of course that is the ultimate desire for each company, however how realistic are the chances that the Wii U is going to come from behind and over take Sony and their PlayStation 4. It’s an unrealistic goal for Nintendo right now, however it may not be so unrealistic in the future.

Today, we begin a series examining the big three as they prepare to wow us at E3 2015. Please keep in mind that this article is based solely on my opinion and speculation. I don’t have any inside info on what may or may not be presented at their respective conferences and I may be entirely off-base on my predictions, however if I somehow manage score at least a 90% on those predictions I respectfully request that you honor my mental acumen by sending me a box of cookies.

So let us begin our look at the big three with the current 8th generation leader, Sony.

Sony is coming into E3 2015 as the undisputed leader in console sales for the 8th generation. Total lifetime sales of the PlayStation 4 is now above 22 million, compared to the Xbox One which is around 11 million. Sony’s comfortable lead is admirable considering that their first-party studios have been largely quiet so far this generation. The PlayStation 4’s success can be attributed to three factors:

• PlayStation 4 is more powerful than its competition, constantly able to run games at 60 FPS and in 1080p compared to Xbox One titles which are often running at 900p.
• Strength of the PS Plus lineup, which has provided access to solid independent titles for free as part of the annual subscription fee.
• Sony has capitalized on the ill-will garnered by Microsoft following the confusing debut of the Xbox One. Sony was able to deliver a clear message to the consumer that was concise and focused compared to the original vision for the Xbox One.

Sony’s lead my seem to be absolute, however Microsoft has done an excellent job of recovering from the poor unveiling of their system. Xbox One is now a legit contender, and they should be able to begin closing the sales gap, especially as they approach a price point that will make it attractive to gamers who already have a PlayStation 4 and are looking to purchase a companion system.

What Sony has to do this year is to capitalize on the momentum that carried them into first-place and keep people excited about the near future, while preventing them from taking a look at their competitors.

The numbers are in. PlayStation 4 is killing it.

Sony needs to show their hand as far as what AAA titles their internal studios are developing. PlayStation 4 is now approaching the 2nd anniversary of its launch and we have still not heard from the likes of the Santa Monica studio, (God of War) not to mention Polyphony (Gran Turismo). One would have to assume that Sony’s internal studio’s would have received PS4 development kits about a year prior to the system launching. So that would give these studios 3 full years now of development. Sony has to date, been fine with letting third party’s carry the ball as far as big releases go, however a system needs exclusives to thrive. Unfortunately, according to comments made at a recent Investor Relations meeting, Sony Global CEO Andrew House was quoted as saying that the first-party lineup for 2015 was “a little sparse.” The games Sony will most likely focus on this year will be Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End, which is due out sometime in 2016, and Capcom’s Street Fighter V, which is also expected to be out in the early part of 2016. Sony will also likely announce a remastered version of the Uncharted series for this holiday season and they already have a remastered God of War III due out by the end of the year.

God of War III Remastered is coming, but how excited can one get for a game that was just released 5 years ago?

A good portion of Sony’s E3 2015 press event will be dedicated to their Morpheus Virtual Reality headset which is supposed to be out in 2016. A clear message is essential here because virtual reality is something that needs to be experienced by the consumer first-hand, as opposed to watching demos online. Pricing will be very important, however I believe that a more important factor that will determine Morpheus’s success will be whether or not Sony can make a case to the consumer as to why virtual reality is important, as well as how it will change the face of gaming and improve the experience over what we already have. Sony needs to tell us why we need virtual reality and why this is the actual future of gaming, as opposed to a passing fad.

Is Morpheus going to be the next big thing? We will find out more at E3 2015.

Bottom Line

The sales leaders during past console generations have sometimes had a tendency to enter the E3 arena with an air of arrogance. (Remember the 2006 PlayStation 3 E3 conference where Sony announced that PS3 would be $600? That’s the type of arrogance to which I’m referring.)

Remember when Sony said that we would want to get a second job so we could afford a PlayStation 3?

Sony has to approach the show with the mentality that the race is still close, so I believe it’s time to really pull back the curtain as far as what their first-party studios are working on. They have to maintain energy and excitement surrounding the immediate future of the PlayStation 4, as well as excite our imaginations for the future of VR.

Predictions

I predict that we will see a price drop for the PlayStation 4 to $350, along with a slash in price of the PS Vita to $99, now that it is viewed as a legacy platform. I expect Sony to tip their hand on at least one original, heretofore unheard of I.P. I also would not be surprised to see a tease for Gran Turismo 7 and I also think there is a possibility (I’m going to go 60% – 40% in favor) that we will see The Last Guardian reintroduced, which if true, will absolutely break the internet.

Sony will reveal their plans during their E3 2015 press conference which is scheduled for Monday June 15th, at 9PM EDT and NerdBacon will be bringing you coverage of all of the E3 2015 happenings.

Next, we will examine Microsoft and what they need to do to succeed at E3 2015.